No matter what you might read in the press, the Bahrain Grand Prix is a long way from a 'nailed-on certainty'. It may be controlled by a doddery old ruler clinging on to power, someone who is considered by many to be completely out of touch with the people, but that's F1 for you.
Bernie's been in charge for a long time and he doesn't look like stepping down any time soon.
The latest opinion from the man representing the grand prix organisers is that it's all systems go for the Bahrain Grand Prix. We're exactly a year on from the day when the Bahraini people rose up against the ruling royal family and on the first anniversary of the protest there were few organized protests on the streets, mostly because the police had managed to keep a firm lid on them.
This has heartened Bernie.
"We are (still) planning to go (to the Grand Prix). I've always said that if there was going to be any drama it would be on the Day of Rage," he told The Daily Telegraph. "They would have to do something then. People there seem confident that a race two months away will be all right."
For the Day of Rage, apart from demolishing the focus of last year's protest, Pearl Roundabout, large parts of the capital Manama were sealed off to prevent people reaching the site. In 2011 the government weren't expecting trouble, they reacted badly and all hell let loose. This year they were a lot more prepared. Armoured vehicles patrolled Bahrain's capital with police firing tear gas at protesters. That may prevent, headline-grabbing clips for the TV news, but it doesn't make the problem go away.
Mr E. thinks there isn't a scintilla of doubt that this year the Sakhir circuit is going to reverberate to the sound of 24 V8 engines. "The teams are not the slightest bit concerned. They seem happy that things will go ahead without problems. Last year was a more clear-cut decision not to go but things have changed a lot since then."
"The only message I got was that there were some kids in trouble with the police," Ecclestone said.
Pesky kids causing trouble. We all know that happens everywhere. Even Scooby Doo's gang couldn't avoid that kind of rap.
Now when it comes to judging the political temperature of a country, Bernie's not exactly John Simpson or Jeremy Bowen. Even when the FIA's special advisor visited the country last year he said things were fine, contrary to the advice to travellers from most European embassies.
It's apparent that the Bahraini government has been trying to engage with its political opposition and address some of the issues that were first raised a year ago. But if the Gulf kingdom's Shia Muslim majority still think that there's too much power in the hands of the Sunni royal family, then the perfect focus of attention is the Bahrain Grand Prix.
The desperate attempts to keep it on the calendar last year made it even more evident that it is a great badge of pride for the ruling elite. So what better way to attract attention than disrupt it or stop it.
Had the organisers said from an early stage last year 'you know what, we're not fussed about the GP' then maybe they could have avoided having to dodge the question a year later. Instead they tried everything they could to sweep the disturbances under the carpet and keep their precious race.
Bernie is right when he says that F1 shouldn't get involved in the politics: "We've always been non-political," he told the Telegraph. "Any decision will be made on grounds of safety."
But in these circumstances, just turning up becomes part of the politics. If there is still widespread resentment that issues haven't been solved the grand prix is likely to be a focus to express dissatisfaction, not a flag that says everything's fixed. The world's media and their cameras will be in town, what better opportunity to get your message across.
2012 is still too early to be going back to Bahrain and you can take the term "not the slightest bit concerned" with a pinch of salt. On that basis the teams are "not the slightest bit concerned" that Red Bull are going to run away with the Championships again and Ferrari are "not the slightest bit concerned" that their radical car might be too slow. And Bernie isn't the remotest bit concerned that he might be proved wrong.
FH
