Conclusions From The Hungarian GP

Sunday 3rd August 2008

Perhaps Lewis and Felipe were unlucky, while Heikki and Kimi were lucky. But perhaps not...

Hamilton's Cockiness Has Already Returned To Haunt Him
"He didn't defend very well. All I know is that if it was the other way around then he wouldn't have got past" - The summary of Lewis Hamilton when asked by ITV to study footage of his overtaking move past Felipe Massa during the German GP on July 20th - exactly two weeks before Massa forced his way past his McLaren rival at the start of the Hungarian GP with a move that was inevitably described as 'Hamiltonesque'.

So Felipe Can Overtake...
After the criticism of his performance in Germany - particularly his weak defence against a charging Hamilton - Massa's move at the start of the race, which saw him overtake both McLarens, was a forceful response. It will also have been partial consolation to the misfortune that befell him late in the race.

Sympathy for the Brazilian will be tinged with the suspicion that his engine blow was the consequence of him pushing too hard - which is another way of stating that he mismanaged his race pace. It is certainly the case that in the laps prior to his engine exploding his lead over Kovalainen evaporated dramatically - from around 25 seconds to 14 - but that proves nothing (other than that if the reduction was the product of a warning from his engine technicians then it was either issued or heeded too late). By setting the fastest laps of the race at the time that Massa was slowing down, Kimi Raikkonen proved that it was possible for the Ferraris to out-perform the McLarens without overcooking their engines. F1 likes a conspiracy, but it is more likely the case that Massa's lead evaporated simply he was managing his race pace and that his retirement really was simple bad luck.

There Is A Downside To Being Aggressive
What, though, of Hamilton's puncture? McLaren's immediately claimed that it was caused by 'debris', but that announcement can already be filed under the 'Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?' category and was too immediate to command credibility. Not until Bridgestone have studied the tyre they constructed can the definitive explanation for why it deflated be provided.

Not that the anti-Hamiltonists will wait until then to offer their own conclusions. They will say - sorry, have already said - that Hamilton was the architect of his own misfortune, pointing to the Turkish GP, when Bridgestone instructed McLaren to use a unique three-stop strategy, as instructive proof that he is too hard on his tyres. In this respect, they are correct. Hamilton was the only driver to suffer a tyre failure in Hungary and it is no secret that his aggressive style of driving makes him uniquely demanding on his tyres. Was that why he suffered a puncture in Hungary? Probably.

Kimi Had The Pace To Win But Not The Strategy
The difficulty in evaluating Raikkonen's performance in Hungary is the team's bewildering decision to load his Ferrari with seven laps more worth of fuel (Massa pitted on lap 18, Kimi on lap 25). Perhaps the team opted for such a conservative because they believed that, regardless of how much fuel Kimi carried he would struggle to equal Massa - and Raikkonen's post-race commentary pointedly included the self-critical admission that "if I can't get qualifying right then we will always end up like this" - but, given that overtaking at the Hungaroring is a near impossibility, the strategy guaranteed a difficult afternoon. If and only if the cars starting in front of the heavily-laden Raikkonen crashed out could he expect a hefty haul of points. In the event, that is what occurred, but Raikkonen's podium finish should be considered luckier than Heikki's inheritance of top spot.

Had Ferrari gambled, and put Raikkonen on a similar strategy to Massa, the inheritance may have been his. Only in the second-half of the race, when clear of Fernando Alonso's mobile chicane, was Raikkonen was able to drive at full pace. That full pace amounted to the quickest laps of the race underlined the flaw in Ferrari's ultra-cautious strategy.

F1 Changes Quickly
With two laps remaining in the Hungarian GP, Felipe Massa was set to regain the lead of the World Championship courtesy of a shock victory that would asked awkward questions of McLaren. But barely had the Brazilian arrived back at the Ferrari garage than the standings were being reconfigured and he had been demoted to third place, behind his team-mate and eight points adrift of Lewis Hamilton. Was his retirement in Budapest the moment his title hopes literally went up in smoke?

That conclusion cannot be reached yet, but Massa's misfortune certainly produced a massive swing in the standings - and not just the Drivers'. With Heikki Kovalainen inheriting a win that was neither undeserved nor deserved - better simply to state it was inherited - and the relieved Hamilton promoted to fifth, Ferrari's lead in the Constructors' Championship has been reduced to a precarious eleven points.

It's Best To Jump Straight Back On To F1's Bike
In F1, a nasty accident can be very good for your motor-racing health.

When Robert Kubica won his first grand prix in Canada last month it was on the circuit that nearly claimed his life a year before, while Timo Glock's career-best performance in Hungary this weekend occurred just two weeks after his heavy shunt in Germany prompted the race-distorting deployment of the Safety Car and an overnight stay in hospital. After a slow start, Glock has blossomed in recent months and his performance in Hungary has guaranteed the young German at least another year at Toyota.

Pete Gill

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